Here's a fascinating take on how the economy works:
Innovative and opaque instruments of debt; greedy bankers; lenders' eagerness to take on risky loans; a lack of regulation; a shortage of bank liquidity: all have been nominated as the underlying cause of the largest economic downturn since the Great Depression. But a more perceptive, and more troubling, diagnosis is suggested by the work of a little-regarded British chemist-turned-economist who wrote before and during the Great Depression.
And what did Mr. Soddy think about the machinations of the economy?
He offered a perspective on economics rooted in physics -- the laws of thermodynamics, in particular. An economy is often likened to a machine, though few economists follow the parallel to its logical conclusion: like any machine the economy must draw energy from outside itself. The first and second laws of thermodynamics forbid perpetual motion, schemes in which machines create energy out of nothing or recycle it forever. Soddy criticized the prevailing belief of the economy as a perpetual motion machine, capable of generating infinite wealth -- a criticism echoed by his intellectual heirs in the now emergent field of ecological economics.
It's fascinating stuff, and when you read on, you find out that, indeed, Mr. Soddy was way ahead of his time!
Soddy distilled his eccentric vision into five policy prescriptions, each of which was taken at the time as evidence that his theories were unworkable: The first four were to abandon the gold standard, let international exchange rates float, use federal surpluses and deficits as macroeconomic policy tools that could counter cyclical trends, and establish bureaus of economic statistics (including a consumer price index) in order to facilitate this effort. All of these are now conventional practice.
It's his fifth point that is more controversial:
Soddy's fifth proposal, the only one that remains outside the bounds of conventional wisdom, was to stop banks from creating money (and debt) out of nothing. Banks do this by lending out most of their depositors’ money at interest -- making loans that the borrower soon puts in a demand deposit (checking) account, where it will soon be lent out again to create more debt and demand deposits, and so on, almost ad infinitum.One way to stop this cycle, suggests Herman Daly, an ecological economist, would be to gradually institute a 100-percent reserve requirement on demand deposits. This would begin to shrink what Professor Daly calls "the enormous pyramid of debt that is precariously balanced atop the real economy, threatening to crash."
Maybe Tim Geithner needs to read a little Fred Soddy, eh?
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Tags: bank debt, ecological economics, economic theory, Frederick Soddy, gold standard, Treasury
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