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A Few Speculators Dominate Vast Market for Oil Trading.
August 21, 2008 10:12 AM

In a seminal article in today's Washington Post, we finally have some hard facts on what has caused this huge run-up in the price of oil (and other commodities) over the past few years, and especially this Spring and Summer (when oil hit $147/barrel).

Even though traders on the floor will tell you that commodities are driven by huge hedge fund speculators now, this much speculation is a shocker:

Regulators had long classified a private Swiss energy conglomerate called Vitol as a trader that primarily helped industrial firms that needed oil to run their businesses.

But when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission examined Vitol's books last month, it found that the firm was in fact more of a speculator, holding oil contracts as a profit-making investment rather than a means of lining up the actual delivery of fuel. Even more surprising to the commodities markets was the massive size of Vitol's portfolio -- at one point in July, the firm held 11 percent of all the oil contracts on the regulated New York Mercantile Exchange.

The CFTC, which learned about the nature of Vitol's activities only after making an unusual request for data from the firm, now reports that financial firms speculating for their clients or for themselves account for about 81 percent of the oil contracts on NYMEX, a far bigger share than had previously been stated by the agency.

This article should reveal to all Americans that our system of unfettered markets has now officially screwed us all. It's a fascinating read, starting with this:

To build up the vast holdings this practice entails, some swap dealers have maneuvered behind the scenes, exploiting their political influence and gaps in oversight to gain exemptions from regulatory limits and permission to set up new, unregulated markets. Many big traders are active not only on NYMEX but also on private and overseas markets beyond the CFTC's purview. These openings have given the firms nearly unfettered access to the trading of vital goods, including oil, cotton and corn.

The commodities industry had long been regulated:

For most of the past century, regulators put limits on financial actors to prevent them from dominating commodity exchanges, which were much smaller than the bond or stock markets. Only commercial operations, such as farms, airlines, manufacturers and the middlemen that handle their trading activities, were allowed to buy nearly unlimited quantities. The goal was to allow these businesses to minimize the effect of price swings.

But something strange happened in 1991, then again in 2000:

The first major change to this regulatory framework occurred in 1991, when Goldman Sachs, through a subsidiary called J. Aron, argued that it should be granted the same exemption given to commercial traders because its business of buying commodities on behalf of investors was similar to the middlemen who broker commodity transactions for commercial firms.

The CFTC granted this request. More exemptions soon followed, including one to the Houston-based energy trader Enron.

A second turning point came when Congress passed the Commodity Futures Modernization Act of 2000. The law formally allowed investors to trade energy commodities on private electronic platforms outside the purview of regulators. Critics have called this piece of legislation the "Enron loophole," saying Enron played a role in crafting it.

In the months after the act was passed, private electronic trading platforms sprang up across the country, challenging the dominance of NYMEX.

And how much did this industry grow over the past five years? Can you say 2000%? It's absolutely stunning:

Using swap dealers as middlemen, investment funds have poured into the commodity markets, raising their holdings to $260 billion this year from $13 billion in 2003. During that same period, the price of crude oil rose unabated every year.

CFTC data show that at the end of July, just four swap dealers held one-third of all NYMEX oil contracts that bet prices would increase. Dealers make trades that forecast prices will either rise or fall. Energy analysts say these data are evidence of the concentration of power in the markets.

So now, with this article, it should be clear to every layman why he or she is spending record amounts at the pump: Our government, starting in 1991 and then again in 2000, sold out its traditional regulatory role to its rich Wall Street benefactors, at the expense of all of us. Coupled with the natural growth of the world population, you have a recipe for higher and higher prices:

In the coming years, commodity investments by funds could grow to $1 trillion, veteran hedge fund manager Michael Masters said in testimony before the Senate earlier this year. In an interview, he said this trend could raise commodity prices for everyone in the coming years and "have catastrophic economic effects on millions of already stressed U.S. consumers."

Just think of that every time you fill up at the gas station or buy that loaf of bread or bag of rice. And, most importantly, think about it when you enter that voting booth in November. If you think prices are high now, you can rest assured that they are guaranteed to go higher under a McCain presidency as he continues to reduce government regulation even beyond its minuscule role now...

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