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Solar power will be cheaper than fossil fuels by 2016, says General Electric
May 27, 2011 12:14 PM

2016 is only FIVE years away:

Solar power may be cheaper than electricity generated by fossil fuels and nuclear reactors within three to five years because of innovations, said Mark M. Little, the global research director for General Electric Co. (GE)

"If we can get solar at 15 cents a kilowatt-hour or lower, which I'm hopeful that we will do, you're going to have a lot of people that are going to want to have solar at home," Little said yesterday in an interview in Bloomberg's Washington office. The 2009 average U.S. retail rate per kilowatt-hour for electricity ranges from 6.1 cents in Wyoming to 18.1 cents in Connecticut, according to Energy Information Administration data released in April.

Costs are plummeting this year:

The cost of solar cells, the main component in standard panels, has fallen 21 percent so far this year, and the cost of solar power is now about the same as the rate utilities charge for conventional power in the sunniest parts of California, Italy and Turkey.

Here is the solar cost curve (in blue) from the recent IPCC report on renewables:

In addition, the Department of Energy under Secretary Chu has launched a "Sun Shot" program to cut solar costs by 75% by 2020:

Energy Secretary Steven Chu dubbed the program a "sun shot" that was patterned on President John F. Kennedy's "moon shot" goal in the 1960s that called for the United States to land a man on the moon.

Chu said cutting the cost of installed solar power by 75 percent would put the price at about $1 per watt, he said, or about 6 cents per kilowatt hour.

"That would make solar energy cost-competitive with other forms of energy without subsidies of any kind," he told a conference call.

Costs for to install photovoltaic solar panels, which turn sunlight directly into electricity, currently run above 22 cents per kilowatt per hour, although federal grants and state incentives can trim that to below 15 cents for large projects.

Let's keep our fingers crossed that we can keep up with the Chinese!


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