« Happy Earth Day 2011! | Main | How Bill Gates Would Solve the Climate Crisis. »

The short answer: it's impossible to know because there are just too many variables:

While there's evidence that increasing greenhouse heating of the planet is exacerbating hot spells and extreme downpours, and may be related to hurricane intensity (but not frequency), a combination of imprecise records and deep complexity in the mix of forces that generate killer tornadoes has clouded any link to global warming. Anyone implying such a connection is in the spin zone.

Right now, it's next to impossible to figure out what causes the massive F-4 and F-5 tornadoes that devastated parts of the South, let alone how Climate Change might be affecting these inputs:

Although meteorologists have greatly improved their understanding of how certain conditions generate especially powerful thunderstorms and how these towering heat engines can spin out twisters, the experts have yet to figure out what ingredients spawn an F-5.

"This is still fundamentally one of the things we can't predict,'" said Dr. Harold E. Brooks, a research meteorologist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla. "I'm not even sure we know what measurements we need to take to try to understand them."

Yes, it does seem as if the frequency of tornado outbreaks has increased over the years, as the following graph shows. But "the big increases in weak tornadoes and slight dip in the F2 class are thought to be mainly the result of changes in reporting methods and also a far greater reporting rate as the South has grown more populous and radar has helped identify tornadic storms."

Andrew Revkin concludes:

Despite a lot of new technology and intensive research, including flying sturdy aircraft in and around potent thunderstorms, the mix of conditions that produce these monstrous funnels remain beyond human capacity to understand.

The bottom line is very similar to that in earthquake country. There are regions of clear risk, and practices -- like building trailer parks or shoddy houses in known danger zones -- that are guaranteed to produce high losses. But knowing when a particular quake or killer funnel strikes remains impossible.

Just watch the following video, tracked from very close, as it skips across a road, almost randomly. It's amazing footage:

Name (required)
Email
Website
Remember personal info? Yes   No
Comments

home | music | democracy | earth | money | projects | about | contact

Site design by Matthew Fries | © 2003-23 Consilience Productions. All Rights Reserved.
Consilience Productions, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization.
All contributions are fully tax deductible.