Over at DailyKos.com, they've got a pretty concise wrap up of how all the predictions of this election played out, and it's pretty fascinating. For instance:
One of the more interesting things about 2008 was receiving emails, listening to cable, reading the pundits... and if you paid attention you would have heard a remarkable amount of nonsense about who Obama could not win over. Big states, rural states, whites, Latinos... well, the astute Chuck Todd, in reviewing exit polls, has pointed out that Obama's win was across the board, and not just because women went with him 56-43, or 18-29 year olds went with him by an astounding 66-32.Everyone knows Obama won with women, but did you know Obama won men 49-48? Bush won men 55-44 in 2004 (a 2 point improvement for Bush over 2000.)
And there's this:
Bush did marginally better in 2004 with White Evangelical/Born-Again (78-21) than McCain (74-24.) By the way, they increased their vote share from 23 to 26, so they did not stay home.
Those numbers would have been undoubtedly lower for McCain had he not chosen Sara Palin as his running mate.
How about rich folks. How did they vote?
Another target for Bush McCain nationally was the high income voter, with stories and scares about "redistributing the wealth" and "socialism". How'd that work out? Well, nationally Obama won 52-46 among those who made $200,000 or more (Bush won that group 63-35.)
Finally, there's this:
Bradley effect, anyone? How about race? Obama lost the white vote 55-43, but Kerry did worse (58-41.) In fact Obama did better with white men (losing 57-41) vs Kerry (62-37) and white women (losing 53-46 for Obama, 55-44 for Kerry), suggesting something we repeatedly came back to. People may be racist, but they didn't lie about it to pollsters.
You can read the entire thing here, with all the fancy charts and other stats...
Kevin Drum has more on these numbers, too...
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Tags: 2008 election, Barack Obama, polls
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